Sports bets can be quite profitable if you know the techniques often the “smart money” bettors work with to consistently make income. Most significant secrets that sensible money bettors use will be knowing when NOT to bet.
Here’s a ideal example of this. I actually analyzed the Western Va vs. Louisville sport, and concluded that will West Las vegas had the particular edge in the game. Nevertheless , My spouse and i also noticed that there initially were a great deal of random and capricious factors, and recommended to a clients that they perform not bet on this specific game. Here is my analysis I released in advance of the game:
West Florida or Louisville
This online game provides all the indications of being one involving the greatest games regarding the year, with both equally teams coming into the game 7-0. It’s #3 graded West Virginia compared to. #5 ranked Louisville, the two using high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year’s video game was a classic, using West Virginia coming back again from becoming down huge in the independence day fraction to winning within overtime, however,.
So what’s the overall game appearance like this year?
In the event that this video game were appearing played with a neutral field, West Florida would certainly probably be a 4-6 point favorite. Since the game is within Louisville, WVU is a 1-point underdog. Let’s see if this makes sense…
West Virginia is definitely on an unprecedented move. They haven’t lost given that Jan. 1, 2005, planning 14-0 since they lost to Las vegas Tech. Through the last two times they’re 13-5 ATS in addition. They’re also 7-2 ATS in their last being unfaithful games overall, and 8-2 ATS in their previous 10 HIGHWAY games.
These types of are some very outstanding stats that tilt the particular scales in favor involving WVU with regard to tonight’s gaming. Plus, typically the additional added bonus is that WVU is usually GETTING +1 point. This may not appear like much, but in a near match-up like this, that spare point might make the change between a push in addition to a loss.
But what concerning Louisville?
Louisville’s gambling are generally almost as good like WVU’s -except when this comes to Louisville within the point spread. In their very own previous 10 games, Louisville is just 4-6 ATS. That said, Louisville is even now 7-3 ATS inside their previous 10 home activities.
In m88 to if you’re leaning towards WVU, here’s a frightening stat… Louisville hasn’t lost in your own home since Dec 16, 2003! During this latest run Louisville is averaging 49. four points each game in your own home, while hitting only leaving behind 15. 6 points per game at home. In case you failed to do the mathematics, that means since their own last home damage they are yet to averaged beating their very own opposing team simply by about thirty four items per game.
What’s more extraordinary, the average line during these games has only been recently 21 points. That methods Louisville has beaten typically the spread, on average, by means of 13 factors per activity at home considering the year 2003.
Wow… how can an individual go against that?
Here’s precisely how…
Almost all of those stats were established during the june 2006 season. This year, 2006, Louisville has been closer to good than great. They are yet to got recent games in which they’ve only scored twenty eight, 3, 24 points. And these games weren’t against Iowa Street. or Michigan. Many people had been against Cincinnati, Syracuse, in addition to Kansas St.
To put it succinctly that this is still a new close sport to contact. Nevertheless what I look with regard to is West Virginia’s defense to carry the moment. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, and Kansas St. can just about all hold Louisville under thirty points, then there’s no explanation to think WVU can’t have one to typically the low to the middle of 20’s. My honest endorsement is to lay off this specific game and not really wager at all. There are usually better activities this weekend break with more clear-cut strengths.
The final score with this game was Louisville forty-four, West Va 34. Lousiville won because West Virginia had 6 fumbles in addition to allowed Lousiville to go back a new punt for the TD. The results was the fact that West Virginia’s borders was not so big they may still win right after doing so many mistakes. Simply by not betting on this sport, people severe with regards to wagering saved money that they can put to better employ on coming games.